The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released the May edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, predicting ethanol production will average 1.03 million barrels per day this year, up from 1 million barrels per day next year. Ethanol production is currently expected to fall to 1.02 million barrels per day in 2018. The May STEO increases the outlook for 2017 ethanol production when compared to the projection made in April, when the EIA predicted production would average 1.02 million barrels per day this year.
On a quarterly basis, the May STEO indicates ethanol production averaged approximately 1.03 million barrels per day during the first quarter of this year. Production is expected to fall to 1.02 million barrels per day during the second quarter, and increase to 1.03 million barrels per day during the third and fourth quarters. In 2018, the EIA predicts ethanol production will average 1.02 million barrels per day during the first two quarters of the year, increasing to 1.03 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and again falling to 1.02 barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
According to the EIA, U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are expected to average $2.39 per gallon during the April through September driving season, up from $2.23 per gallon last summer. The higher forecast gasoline price is primarily attributed to higher forecasted crude prices. The annual average price for regular gasoline in 2017 is expected to be $2.34 per gallon.
The EIA’s most recent weekly ethanol production data shows production averaged 1.006 barrels per day the week ending May 5, up from 986,000 barrels per day the previous week. The EIA’s most recent monthly export data shows the U.S. exported nearly 3.35 million barrels of ethanol in February, primarily to Brazil, India and Canada. During the same month, the U.S. imported only 377,000 barrels of ethanol, all from Brazil.
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